July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. today unveils its 787
Dreamliner at an event hosted by former television news anchor Tom
Brokaw before 15,000 people and broadcast live by satellite in nine
languages.
Once the crowd leaves, Boeing must prove the aircraft is ready for
commercial use in eight months, the shortest test- flight program
in the company's 90-year history.
``The flight test will be the moment of truth,'' said Craig Fraser,
a fixed-income analyst at Fitch Ratings in New York. ``That's what
people are really focusing on. Does it go from a positive story to
a very positive story or slide into trouble?''
The 787 Dreamliner is Boeing's first new jetliner since 1995 and,
with 677 orders, its most successful. The world's second-largest
maker of commercial aircraft is counting on the 787 to win back
leadership of the $60 billion-a-year jetliner market from Airbus
SAS.
The plane helped Boeing win more orders than Toulouse, France-based
Airbus in 2006 for the first time in five years. Airbus's competing
A350 XWB will enter service in 2013, five years after the
Dreamliner. The 787 is sold out until 2015, Boeing says. Airbus
passed Boeing in aircraft deliveries in 2003 and retained the lead
through last year.
Chicago-based Boeing's shares have risen 50 percent over the past
two years, while shares of European Aeronautic Defence & Space
Co., Airbus's parent company, have fallen 6.3 percent. Boeing rose
52 cents to $98.88 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading on
July 6.
$10 Billion Investment
The 787, approved by Boeing's board in late 2003, has cost $10
billion to develop, according to Paul Nisbet, an analyst at JSA
Research in Newport, Rhode Island.
About $6 billion came from Boeing and $4 billion from suppliers
sharing the risk associated with developing the new plane by
designing their own parts, Nisbet estimated. Boeing project manager
Michael Bair declined to say how much has been invested in the
program.
The 787, which features carbon-fiber composites that reduce weight
and improve fuel efficiency, will begin test flights around early
September, and delivery of the first plane to a customer is slated
for May 2008. ``We have no intention of being late into service,''
Bair said at a news conference in Seattle on July 6.
The unveiling day is symbolic: 7/8/07. Also, 60 years ago to the
day, Boeing's 377 Stratocruiser, its first plane to sell
successfully to non-U.S. airlines, flew for the first time. The
Stratocruiser used cutting-edge technology of the period, cabin
pressure, letting it fly above the weather.
Bleacher Seats
For today's debut, Boeing reserved Qwest Field, home of the Seattle
Seahawks professional football team, for employees and retirees to
watch on its video screen. Boeing's satellite feeds will carry the
event to workers, customers and suppliers around the world in
languages including Arabic and Chinese. It also will be available
via a Web cast.
The showing of the 787, at the Everett, Washington, factory where
it is assembled, is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Seattle time, or 6:30
p.m. New York time.
``The rollout is for show,'' said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at
Teal Group, a Fairfax, Virginia-based aviation consulting company.
``The real money is getting it to fly right. This is a notably
aggressive flight test schedule with little room for error.''
Improved technology and flight simulators have reduced the need for
tests once possible only after the plane was built. The test
flights are scheduled to last three fewer months than the 11 months
required for the 777 in the early 1990s, Bair said. The 777 entered
service in 1995.
`Compressed' Program
``It is compressed,'' Bair said of the test-flight program. ``Time
will see whether it was wise or not, but we have a plan in place to
do whatever we need to, to make sure that we are
successful.''
The extensive use of simulators has enabled Boeing to spend three
fewer years in developing the 787 versus the 777, according to the
Teal Group. Boeing used computer-simulated testing to run air flows
on the Dreamliner's wings and fuselage. Simulation reduced the
number of 787 wings tested in wind tunnels to 11 from the 77 tested
for the 767 about 25 years ago.
Boeing has ``nearly doubled'' the capacity of its computer- data
center every year during the development of the 787, Boeing
Director of Airplane Performance Mike Garrett said last year.
For months, Boeing has tested the Dreamliner's systems, from
in-flight entertainment to power generation, in labs south of
Seattle. To further cut test-flight time, the planemaker leased a
777 from American Airlines Inc. and for nine months tried out
flight control software that will be used on the 787.
`Undeniably Tight'
Boeing now spends about 18 months to complete preliminary design on
a commercial plane from conceptual design, said Garrett. Boeing
wants to reduce that to six months.
The company should meet its schedule for the 787, said Hans Weber,
chief executive officer of San Diego consulting company Tecop
International.
``Their flight test schedule is undeniably tight, but credible
given what Boeing knows and its investment in this area of analysis
before the plane is even built,'' he said.
YEAH! Down with Airbus!